# threatlevel.uk

> Independent tracker of the UK national terrorism threat level. Current level: SEVERE (an attack is highly likely). Raised from substantial on 30 April 2026.

Northern Ireland-related terrorism in Northern Ireland: substantial.
Last checked against official sources: 2026-10-01. Official source: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels
This site is not affiliated with MI5, JTAC or the UK Government.

## Data
- [Full history as JSON](https://threatlevel.uk/data.json)
- [Website](https://threatlevel.uk/)

## Levels
- Low: An attack is highly unlikely.
- Moderate: An attack is possible but not likely.
- Substantial: An attack is likely.
- Severe: An attack is highly likely.
- Critical: An attack is highly likely in the near future.

## History (most recent first; 'estimate' rows predate published levels in August 2006)

- 2026-04-30: Severe. Raised after the Golders Green stabbing, reflecting a rising Islamist and extreme right-wing threat.
- 2022-02-09: Substantial. Lowered as JTAC judged the threat was back to its level before the Amess murder and the Liverpool bomb.
- 2021-11-15: Severe. Raised after the Liverpool Women's Hospital bomb, the second UK attack in a month after the murder of Sir David Amess.
- 2021-02-04: Substantial. Lowered as the wave of attacks in Europe between September and November 2020 lost momentum; announced on 8 February.
- 2020-11-03: Severe. Attacks in France and Vienna.
- 2019-11-04: Substantial. Lowered after a routine six-monthly review, the first time below severe since 2014. The Fishmongers' Hall attack followed on 29 November.
- 2017-09-17: Severe. Lowered after arrests in the Parsons Green investigation.
- 2017-09-15: Critical. Parsons Green Tube bombing.
- 2017-05-27: Severe. Lowered after police arrested a large part of the Manchester bomber's network; troops withdrawn from the streets.
- 2017-05-23: Critical. Manchester Arena bombing.
- 2014-08-29: Severe. Rise of Islamic State and fighters travelling to Syria and Iraq.
- 2011-07-11: Substantial. Lowered two months after the death of Osama bin Laden; the Home Secretary gave no specific reason.
- 2010-01-22: Severe. Raised after the failed Christmas Day 2009 bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner, amid increased intelligence about al-Qaeda planning; no imminent attack was indicated.
- 2009-07-20: Substantial. First drop below severe since threat levels were published; security sources called it a finely balanced judgement. No specific reason was given.
- 2007-07-04: Severe. Lowered after suspects linked to the Glasgow and London attacks were arrested.
- 2007-06-30: Critical. Glasgow Airport attack and London car bombs.
- 2006-08-13: Severe. Lowered after the arrest of the main airliner plot suspects; airport security restrictions stayed in place.
- 2006-08-10: Critical. Transatlantic airliner liquid bomb plot.
- 2006-08-01: Severe. Threat levels published for the first time.
- 2005-08-01: Severe (estimate). After the July 2005 attacks.
- 2005-07-07: Critical (estimate). London bombings, then the failed 21 July attacks.
- 2005-05-01: Substantial (estimate). Press reports of a reduction under the internal system.
- 2001-09-11: Severe (estimate). After 9/11; reported as “severe general” for several years.
- 2000-06-01: Substantial (estimate). Real IRA attacks: MI6 building 2000, BBC Television Centre and Ealing 2001.
- 1999-01-01: Moderate (estimate). Low mainland activity.
- 1997-07-20: Substantial (estimate). Ceasefire restored; Good Friday Agreement in 1998.
- 1996-02-09: Severe (estimate). Ceasefire ends with the Docklands bomb; Manchester bombed in June.
- 1995-01-01: Moderate (estimate). Ceasefire holding, little mainland activity.
- 1994-09-01: Substantial (estimate). IRA ceasefire.
- 1979-03-30: Severe (estimate). Airey Neave murdered; sustained campaign through the 1980s and early 1990s, including Hyde Park, Harrods, Brighton, Deal, Warrington and Bishopsgate.
- 1977-01-01: Substantial (estimate). Fewer mainland attacks.
- 1975-01-01: Severe (estimate). London bombing campaign by the Balcombe Street unit.
- 1974-11-21: Critical (estimate). Birmingham pub bombings, following Guildford and the M62 coach bomb.
- 1972-02-22: Severe (estimate). Official IRA bombs Aldershot barracks; Provisional IRA mainland campaign begins with the Old Bailey in 1973.
- 1971-01-12: Substantial (estimate). Angry Brigade bombings, including Robert Carr's home; Post Office Tower bomb in October.
- 1969-08-14: Moderate (estimate). The Troubles begin; troops deployed in Northern Ireland.
- 1968-01-01: Low (estimate). No sustained terrorist campaign in Great Britain.